How long solar takes to pay for itself
Payback is the year the money you have saved passes the money you spent. It got roughly three years longer for everyone in 2026, because the 30% federal credit that used to cover the first stretch of it no longer exists.
What the crossing looks like
Orange is the period you are still behind. Green is the period the system is genuinely making you money. Over 25 years this system saves $60,280 in avoided electricity against $25,440 spent, so it clears $34,840.
Where the crossing comes soonest
| State | System price | Saves, year one | Solar costs | Grid costs | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | $29,920 | $3,081 | 12.6¢ | 30.5¢ | 9.0 years |
| New York | $31,840 | $3,002 | 13.5¢ | 29.9¢ | 9.7 years |
| Rhode Island | $30,000 | $2,847 | 12.7¢ | 28.3¢ | 9.7 years |
| California | $34,880 | $3,015 | 11.6¢ | 33.6¢ | 10.5 years |
| Connecticut | $30,000 | $2,470 | 12.5¢ | 24.2¢ | 11.0 years |
| Delaware | $25,440 | $1,885 | 10.6¢ | 18.5¢ | 12.1 years |
| Arizona | $28,960 | $2,077 | 9.1¢ | 15.4¢ | 12.4 years |
| Wisconsin | $29,840 | $1,915 | 12.6¢ | 19.1¢ | 13.7 years |
| Texas | $27,680 | $1,765 | 10.6¢ | 15.9¢ | 13.8 years |
| Florida | $32,640 | $1,715 | 12.1¢ | 15.0¢ | 16.3 years |
| Oregon | $31,200 | $1,377 | 15.4¢ | 16.0¢ | 18.9 years |
“Solar costs” is what a kilowatt-hour from your own roof works out at once the system is paid for and spread over its life. Where that number is below the grid price in the next column, the system is cheaper than the utility whatever the payback year says.
Four things, in order of how much they matter
What you pay per watt. The largest single lever, and the one most within your control. The gap between a competitively tendered price and the first quote through the door is routinely a quarter of the system cost, which is several years of payback.
What your utility charges. Solar pays back fastest where electricity is expensive, not where the sun is strongest. This is why rooftop solar has long made more financial sense in New England than in much sunnier parts of the south.
What your exports are worth. Under full net metering every exported kilowatt-hour is worth retail. Where a state has moved to avoided-cost export rates, a system that sends most of its output to the grid is worth far less, and the fix is usually to use more of it yourself rather than to buy fewer panels.
Sunlight. Genuinely the smallest of the four across most of the country. The spread between the sunniest and least sunny mainland states is smaller than the spread between a good and a bad price per watt.
Three competing quotes beat any amount of comparing panel brands
Sales cost and margin are over a third of an installed price, and they are the part that competition removes. A single quote from whoever reached you first is how people end up in the top quarter of what their neighbours paid.
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Prices and rules change. We will tell you when they do
Berkeley Lab publishes installed prices once a year, the EIA updates electricity rates every month, and Congress changed the tax treatment of all of this in 2025. One email when something on this site actually changes, and nothing else.
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